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is EU staring down the barrel of a trade shock?

With the July 9 deadline approaching, U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to announce 10% tariffs on all European Union imports.
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​Markets are already reacting. Founders should, too.

The Numbers don't lie:

• STOXX 600: 0.82%
• DAX: 0.99%
• CAC 40: 0.99%
• IBEX: 0.99%

(These numbers are quoted as per the time of writing this)

To put this in perspective for you, Italy alone stand to lose $23.5 Billions due to these Tariff wars

Investors are bracing for a scenario where autos, steel, and aluminium tariffs stay on, and key EU industries lose pricing power in the U.S. overnight.

This isn’t speculation, it’s already triggering risk pricing, supply chain audits, and VC hedging.

Let’s break down why this is more than just noise, and how you, especially if you're exposed to these sectors, can leverage this better.

What’s Unfolding Right Now:

• The EU is scrambling to reach an agreement that shields key sectors, but tariff letters are reportedly ready to go.
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• Even if the EU gets a last-minute “agreement in principle,” investors are treating this as the new trade reality.

"If the 25% auto and 50% steel tariffs remain, it’s a traumatically negative outcome for Europe." – Jochen Stanzl, CMC Markets

Italy might become an Epicentre of this Collapse:

Just from a 10% blanket tariff on EU goods, Italy may lose $23.5 billion in exports and 118,000 jobs, this is because the real hit is 23.5% when you factor in euro-dollar currency shifts.

The U.S. wants leverage. The EU wants breathing room.
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You? You should want market share.

1. Europe’s loss is your wedge: If you’re in industrial B2B, electronics, transport, or precision components, this is your moment to poach clients from disrupted EU suppliers.
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2. Currency is a competitive weapon: Italian exports just got 23.5% more expensive in USD terms. You don’t need to discount, you just need to invoice in dollars.
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3. EU clients are also vulnerable: If you’re selling to European buyers, hedge now. Consider shifting part of your GTM to U.S. buyers while rates and demand are still favorable.

Any Middle East escalation pushing Brent crude above $95 means instant hikes in data-center power and logistics.

Key Takeaway for Founders:

0–3 Months:

• Identify EU-based competitors in your niche. What’s their U.S. exposure?
• Offer trial contracts to U.S. clients looking for non-EU alternatives.
• Talk to freight and customs agents, model landed cost scenarios.

3–6 Months:

• Hedge local costs if your revenue is dollar-denominated.
• Build your sales story around stability and predictability: "We're not exposed to Brussels or tariffs."
• Document your logistics edge: delivery times, compliance, cost per unit.

Heads up for Founders and VCs, if you are looking at these sectors:

Favourable:

• Emerging-market B2B in industrials, auto-parts, machinery
• Freight-tech and logistics rerouting around Europe
• SaaS tools managing multi-currency pricing, trade compliance

At Risk:

• EU-based exporters in machinery, transport, and manufacturing
• Consumer brands reliant on margin-sensitive U.S. buyers
• Euro-denominated SaaS billing U.S. clients without FX hedges

Trade storms create market vacuums.
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Founders who sprint now will own the shelves, and the margins, before Europe even finishes its crisis meeting.

If this playbook lit a fire under you, pass the spark:
​Forward this edition to one operator or investor whom you think, can’t afford to miss the window.